Climate Variability and Sugarcane Production: Patterns and Trends across Diverse Ecological Zones
Abstract
This study probes the impact of climate change on sugarcane production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan using panel data of seven major sugarcane producing districts divided in two different climatic zones, i.e., Zone C and D from 1986 to 2015. Model specification includes climatic variables, i.e., precipitation and annual average maximum & minimum temperature, and non-climatic variables, i.e., production and area variables. Furthermore, to capture the effects of explanatory variables across the two zones, multiplicative dummies in the model were added. Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) estimator, the efficient estimator in the presence of Heteroscedasticity, Serial and Cross correlations was used for analysis of the outlined model. Empirical results showed that area, annual average maximum temperature, and precipitation have a negative and significant effect on sugarcane production while annual average minimum temperature showed a positive and significant effect on sugarcane production. Furthermore, it was also noted that precipitation and annual average maximum temperature effects in Zone-D were severe than Zone-C on sugarcane production. However, the annual average minimum temperature effect is showing less in Zone-D as compared to Zone-C.
Keywords: Climate Change, Sugarcane Production, Pakistan, FGLS