Navigating Opportunity And Dependence: The Strategic Evolution Of Sino-Pak Relations Since 2013

Abstract

The strategic relationship between Pakistan and China has been strengthening since 2013, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has become the emblematic project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in China. This paper is a critical review of Sino-Pakistani relationship growth, as seen through economic, military, connectivity, and diplomatic lenses, using qualitative analysis, such as content analysis of policy, academic and media documents, and interviews with elite sources. As shown by the findings, although CPEC has spurred development in the Pakistan infrastructure, enhanced energy security, and deepened regional integration with the potential of generating up to 2.3 million jobs, it has also created reports of issues of debt sustainability, policy sovereignty, and regional inequality. In addition, strategic cooperation is becoming increasingly driven by changes in global dynamics, such as competition between the U.S. and China, realignments in the Indo-Pacific, and security challenges, especially in Afghanistan. This study takes an integrated analytical approach of the theories of Realism and Complex Interdependence to provide a balanced and policy based analysis of the opportunities and vulnerabilities inherent to the Pakistan-China relationship that are developing. The article will advance the general discussion on South Asian politics, strategic independence and the prospects of Sino-Pakistani collaboration in a more multipolar position.

Keywords: Pakistan-China relations; CPEC; Belt and Road Initiative; regional security; strategic autonomy; economic diplomacy.